The year 2024 has reshuffled the cards for businesses globally. Between the retreat of inflation, new European regulations altering value chain management, and a geopolitical shift related to the American elections, the business world has undergone structural changes that go beyond the simple economic cycle.
European Regulation on AI and Due Diligence: A New Framework for Businesses
Two texts adopted in 2024 redefine the obligations of companies operating in the European market. Their scope far exceeds traditional financial reporting.
The regulation (EU) 2024/1689, adopted on June 13, 2024, constitutes the first binding legal framework on artificial intelligence in a major economy. It prohibits certain AI practices deemed manipulative and imposes transparency obligations on AI-generated content, chatbots, and automated recruitment tools. For customer services, targeted advertising, or data management, this means an additional compliance risk to integrate into budgets and internal processes.
The directive (EU) 2024/1760, published on July 5, 2024, concerns the due diligence of large companies regarding human rights and the environment within their value chains. Affected companies must identify, prevent, and address negative impacts related to their suppliers and business partners. Detailed analyses of these developments can regularly be found in the information from Magazine Business, which follows these topics as regulatory news unfolds.
The shift from mere voluntary reporting to concrete risk management obligations transforms the relationship between contractors and subcontractors. Legal, procurement, and compliance teams must now collaborate on documented action plans, under penalty of sanctions.
Monetary Policy and Interest Rates: What the Decline Means for Business Management
The decline in central bank interest rates marked a turning point in 2024. Both the ECB and the Fed have initiated a cycle of monetary easing following the tightening phase of previous years.
For businesses, borrowing is cheaper than at the peak of 2023. Investment projects that were frozen during the rate hike phase are becoming viable on paper again. The financing costs for inventory, acquisitions, or commercial real estate are mechanically decreasing.
This relaxation remains relative. Rates are still significantly above pre-2020 levels, when credit conditions were nearly zero. Companies that calibrated their business models on near-zero rates must contend with a sustainably more demanding financial environment.
Consequences on Cash Flow and Budgetary Trade-offs
The gradual decline in rates alters the trade-offs between cash placement and productive investment. With monetary yields declining, allocating liquidity towards growth-generating projects is becoming attractive again.
Financial departments must also anticipate the timing of upcoming monetary decisions to secure their credit lines. Poorly synchronized refinancing can cost several dozen basis points over the duration of a loan.
Global Growth in 2024: Disparities Between Economic Zones
The global economy progressed in 2024 at a pace comparable to 2023, but the gaps between regions widened. The United States showed growth exceeding forecasts, driven by the consumption of goods and services. Europe, on the other hand, suffered from lackluster domestic demand, exacerbated by the difficulties of the German industry.
China maintained a growth rate above the global average, but failed to compensate for the slowdown in Western demand with its domestic consumption. Global trade volumes have increased, albeit slightly below WTO projections.
For companies focused on international markets, these disparities impose concrete adjustments:
- The American market remains the main growth driver for European exporters, but margins are under pressure from a strong dollar and increased local competition.
- European trading partners must deal with weak manufacturing demand, which weighs on order books and payment delays.
- In Asia, geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains, forcing some companies to diversify their suppliers towards Southeast Asia or Mexico.
American Elections and Tariffs: The Commercial Impact of the Trump Presidency
The return of Donald Trump to the White House has introduced a major variable for international trade. Announcements of significant tariff increases are redefining the conditions for accessing the American market.
On the fiscal front, the orientations aimed at easing the tax burden on American companies and relaxing banking regulations seek to stimulate domestic investment. For European companies, this fiscal asymmetry heightens the risk of relocating certain activities to the United States.
Repercussions on the Business Strategies of French Companies
The new American protectionist trends force French exporters to recalculate their margins, rethink their logistics circuits, and sometimes consider local production in the United States to circumvent tariff barriers. The aerospace, luxury, and agri-food sectors, heavily exposed to the American market, are the first affected.
The costs of adapting to this new commercial context remain difficult to anticipate, as customs policy announcements evolve rapidly and depend on ongoing bilateral negotiations.
The year 2024 thus posed a dual challenge for companies: to absorb a more stringent European regulatory framework while navigating a fragmented international trade environment. Decisions made regarding data management, value chain compliance, and market diversification will determine the resilience of business models for the years to come.
